Showing posts tagged “Public Policy Polling”
Joe Schwartz ·
2 Nov 2009, 2:15 PM ·
1 Comment
The race for Chapel Hill mayor is too close to call between Matt Czajkowski and Mark Kleinschmidt, according to a poll released today by Public Policy Polling. The councilmen have 45 and 44 percent, respectively, with a 4 percent margin of error. Competitors Augustus Cho and Kevin Wolff each have 3 percent.
The survey found incumbent Ed Harrison (12 percent), Gene Pease (11 percent) and first-term Councilwoman Laurin Easthom (10 percent) leading the race for four seats on the Chapel Hill Town Council with Jon DeHart (9 percent) and Matt Pohlman (9 percent) battling Penny Rich (8 percent) and appointed Councilman Jim Merritt (7 percent) for fourth place. Will Raymond came in last at 3 percent.
The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday with 30 percent of the 614 voters contacted responding as still undecided. Election Day is tomorrow.
Continue reading »
Chapel Hill, Orange County, politics Augustus Cho, Ed Harrison, Gene Pease, Jim Merritt, Jon Dehart, Kevin Wolff, Laurin Easthom, Mark Kleinschmidt, Matt Czajkowski, Matt Pohlman, Penny Rich, Public Policy Polling, Will Raymond
Bob Geary ·
10 Dec 2008, 3:36 PM ·
Comment
Will Attorney General Roy Cooper, a Democrat, take the plunge in the ‘10 race against U.S. Senator Richard Burr, R-NC? Dean Debnam, Public Policy Polling’s president, clearly thinks he oughta. Not to be a pushy PPP president, but he did take a poll. It gives Cooper a 5-point edge. Today.
Says Debnam, in a press release:
In their potential head to head, Burr and Cooper perform almost equally well within their
own parties. Any time a Democrat can do that in North Carolina, he or she is going to
win a statewide race due to the state’s significant Democratic identification advantage.
“This poll confirms what many people already thought: Roy Cooper is the strongest
potential Democratic opponent for Richard Burr in 2010,” said Dean Debnam, President
of Public Policy Polling. “He is just as well known statewide as the incumbent Senator,
and better liked. He would be quite a formidable candidate.”
North Carolina, Raleigh, politics Dean Debnam, Public Policy Polling, Richard Burr, Roy Cooper
Lisa Sorg ·
5 Nov 2008, 11:56 AM ·
Comment
Public Policy Polling offers an excellent county-by-county analysis of why Obama won North Carolina. For example, Wake County, which went for Bush by 7,000 votes in 2004, swung to Obama by 64,000 ballots.
North Carolina, politics Barack Obama, Public Policy Polling, victory
Fiona Morgan ·
3 Nov 2008, 1:56 PM ·
Comment
It’s supposed to rain tomorrow.
Public Policy Polling says that hurts McCain’s chances of winning North Carolina.
Their poll shows a 10-point lead for Obama among those who took advantage of early voting. McCain has a strong lead here among those waiting for Election Day. “It is always better to have actual votes than hypothetical votes so there’s no doubt Obama has the edge right now.”
Uncategorized 2008 election, early voting, Public Policy Polling
Bob Geary ·
29 Oct 2008, 11:35 AM ·
Comment
Raleigh’s Public Policy Polling has Obama up by 17 points in Wake County. (Bush won it by 2.) Hagan and Perdue also lead, though by less. It’s all here.
And in the Wake commissioners campaign, their polling puts Democrat Stan Norwalk ahead of incumbent Republican Kenn Gardner by 9 points. The Realtors’ attacks aren’t working, apparently. Democrat incumbents lead the other two commissioners races by even more. That’s all here.
Wake County, politics Barack Obama, Bev Perdue, Kay Hagan, Kenn Gardner, N.C. Association of Realtors, Public Policy Polling, Stan Norwalk
Bob Geary ·
20 Oct 2008, 2:13 PM ·
Comment
Raleigh’s own Public Policy Polling (PPP) is out with its latest in NC: Obama by 7 over McCain (and Obama over 50%); and in the U.S. Senate race, Hagan over Dole by 7. Earlier, the Perdue campaign was touting a new Research 2000 poll showing Bev leading McCrory by 5 in the governor’s race. Two weeks to go — a long time in politics. But if Obama’s solidly ahead in this supposed red state, McCain could be headed for a McGovern-like landing on Nov. 4.
PPP’s analysis is below. Continue reading »
North Carolina, Raleigh, national, politics Barack Obama, Bev Perdue, Elizabeth Dole, John McCain, Kay Hagan, Pat McCrory, Public Policy Polling
Bob Geary ·
25 Sep 2008, 12:39 PM ·
Comment
You can read all about it here. Public Policy Polling finds Obama ahead of McCain with suburban independents in NC; ditto Kay Hagan over Sen. Dole. But in the Gov’s race, Pat McCrory and Bev Perdue are tied with this swing demographic — a key reason Perdue’s running even at best in most statewide polls. The Suburbindys, PPP finds, also like Janet Cowell in the state Treasurer’s race, and by lesser margins Mary Fant Donnan for labor commissioner and Wayne Goodwin for insurance commissioner — all Democrats.
Oh, and for the first time Rasmussen has Obama slightly ahead of McCain in NC, though it’s still within the margin of error. TPM’s got your poll links.
North Carolina, Raleigh, national Barack Obama, Bev Perdue, Elizabeth Dole, Janet Cowell, John McCain, Kay Hagan, Mary Fant Donnan, Pat McCrory, Public Policy Polling, Wayne Goodwin
Bob Geary ·
10 Sep 2008, 1:09 PM ·
1 Comment
Public Policy Polling, the Raleigh firm, is out with its first post-conventions survey of North Carolina voters. In NC, McCain leads Obama 48%-44%, with Libertarian candidate Bob Barr drawing 4%. In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic challenger Kay Hagan and incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole, the Republican, are in a virtual tie; ditto gubernatorial candidates Bev Perdue, the Democrat, and Pat McCrory, the Republican. The numbers: Hagan 43%, Dole 42%, Libertarian Chris Cole 6%; Perdue 41%, McCrory 40%, Libertarian Mike Munger 6%.
Says PPP analyst Tom Jensen:
The race in North Carolina is pretty much where it was before the two party conventions- close but with a definite advantage for McCain. A concern for Obama rising out of this poll is that undecided whites have gone from 10% three weeks ago to just 3% now, and two thirds of them have gone into the McCain column.
A Survey USA (SUSA) poll for WTVD in Durham yesterday put McCain up 20 in NC, with Dole and McCrory each up 8. A good time to remember that approximately one poll in 20 will be an “outlier.” In other words, given the mathematical probabilities of sampling, you can accurately predict voting behavior about 95% of the time within a “margin of error” that gets smaller the more people you sample. But then there’s that other 5 percent of the time, when the results of the sample will be inaccurate. So, if we assume for argument’s sake that the PPP poll is one of the 95% and the SUSA poll isn’t, then with a margin of error of 4%, Obama could be even with McCain in NC, or he could be 8 behind — or anywhere in between. But he’s not 20 behind.
On top of which the Perdue campaign is out with this on the SUSA poll, arguing that it over-sampled Republicans — another trap-door for pollsters.
Pollster.com analyzed the recent Survey USA poll and suggests that there’s a major error in the Survey USA methodology: “In other words, in a survey conducted less than a month later, Democrats made up 6% less of the sample and Republican representation increased by 8%. Everything we know about partisanship suggests that such massive shifts over such a short period are highly unlikely.”
You can read the post here: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/about_that_north_carolina_poll.php
Zach Ambrose
Campaign Manager
North Carolina, politics Barack Obama, Bev Perdue, Elizabeth Dole, John McCain, Kay Hagan, Pat McCrory, Public Policy Polling
