STAC: Chunkified transit
It’s all about the money now. The STAC (Special Transit Advisory Commission) was on the verge today of endorsing a “2020″ plan for the region that looks an awful lot like the original Triangle Transit Authority transit plan circa 1992 or ‘93 — back when the TTA plan included a northeast spur out of Raleigh and the 15-501 corridor from Chapel Hill to Durham. But that was before the STAC confronted for real the question of how much it will cost. Followed by the question of whether any scenario for raising all that money is feasible, let alone realistic. Even assuming a 1/2-cent regional sales tax for transit that would be levied on Wake, Durham and Orange counties starting in two years — euphemistically termed “a Charlotte level of commitment” — and assuming 25 percent capital funding from both the state and the federal government (neither of which is a given), the task of putting the imagined “2020″ plan in service starting in 2020 appeared to be out of fiscal reach.
If I understood the staff’s numbers correctly — and that’s a big if — costs were in the $3 billion-plus area, versus imagined revenues that, even optimistically, were $2 billion or so. And the 29-member STAC just hasn’t put enough time against the question of where, if they can’t build it all, they think it should start. So instead of pretty much wrapping things up today — the hoped-for schedule — so staffers could draft a final report that the members would endorse at one final meeting in February, STACers agreed that at least one more session will be needed to consider “chunkification.” What’s chunkification? It’s explained below.**
Chunkification, TTA General Manager David King quipped, “is a scientific term, Bob, for something that’s going to be hard for you to understand.” This is what passes for transit humor. 
But seriously, the whole TTA/2020 scheme, or whatever you call it, includes about 50 miles worth of rail, plus some seriously “enhanced” bus service (150-200 more buses operating throughout the region, allowing more frequent service on key feeder routes in all three counties), plus several new “circulator” bus or streetcar systems in Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill, and RTP-RDU Airport, respectively.
And, naturally, the STAC members from Raleigh think the Raleigh parts of that scheme are just swell, not to say critical … ditto the Durham parts for the Durham members … and the members from Chapel Hill think the 15-501 corridor is potentially the best-performing of all the parts (based on ridership per mile), besides which they think Orange County’s been awfully patient these many years watching and waiting while the TTA spent $100 million acquiring land in the Raleigh-to-Durham segment.
In other words, everybody wants theirs, and everybody’d be happy to support a plan that includes everybody’s — but the money! where would it come from? Leaving two big issues still to be resolved: (1) How optimistic to be about funding sources? (2) Which “chunks” to build first, and at how much cost, if and when the whole system can’t be funded in a single 2020 sweep.
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Notice, please, that the STAC is going to endorse — apparently — that 1/2-cent sales tax for transit, same as Charlotte has. Unless I missed it, the STAC’s never actually voted on that, but if there’s anyone in the room who doesn’t support it, he/she didn’t pipe up today. It seems to be a given that any Triangle transit scheme must have, as King put it, a 1/2-cent sales tax behind it — “or equivalent” — to get off the ground. Such a tax would require the General Assembly’s approval and, presumably, the support of a majority of the legislators from each of the three county delegations. That might not be such a piece of cake, however. Just to mention a couple of potential stumbling blocks: Wake County’s Republicans, if they have anything to say about it; and Durham Rep. Paul Luebke, a Democrat and a finance leader in the House, who thinks sales taxes are the worst — i.e., most regressive — kind of tax … excepting the lottery, of course.