Uh-O

Much like football (”a game of inches”), politics in America is decided by small margins — winner-take-all. If Obama wins tonight in NH, even by a hair, he’s 2-0 in “white” states and Hillary’s in trouble. But if Hillary wins, as now seems the case, by a nose, she’s the “Comeback Kid II” … and Obama’s confronted with the problem that 37-38 percent seems to be his limit.

Assumption before: Obama and Edwards are competing for the “change” vote. Still true. But it’s always been the case — as well — that Clinton and Edwards are competing for the older, less-affluent vote. In Iowa, Edwards ran strong at 30 percent and Hillary suffered. In NH, where Edwards has been weak going back to ‘04, he’s down to 17 and she jumps to 38-39. If Edwards keeps dropping, does it fuel the O-mentum? Or the Hillary!

This entry was posted from Bob Geary on Tuesday, January 8th, 2008 at 8:59 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.