McFarlane wins, Koopman almost does
Raleigh very nearly had a sea change election tonight — and when all is said and done, it almost certainly was a sea change election. Here’s why. Take the prevailing 5-3 majority in favor of development interests on the current City Council. Subtract one from the majority: District A incumbent Tommy Craven lost his re-election bid tonight to neighborhood activist Nancy McFarlane (above). Now get ready to subtract another one from that majority, as District B incumbent Jessie Taliaferro captured just 33 percent of the vote, well back of challenger Rodger Koopman (above right), who got 44 percent. (A third candidate, Angel Menendez, accounted for the rest.) Koopman didn’t win outright, and the N&O reports that Taliaferro will call for a runoff; but when an incumbent trails by that much in round one, her chances of coming back to win in round two are slim. And if Taliaferro does indeed lose, suddenly that 5-3 majority becomes at best a 3-5 minority. But it’s probably worse than that for the developers — more below ***
Worse? Yes, because District C incumbent James West, who aligned with the previous majority, has no reason not to shift gears and align with the new one. And if he does, that will make it a 6-2 majority. And then Mary-Ann Baldwin, elected tonight at-large, really has no reason to follow in the footsteps of her predecessor, Joyce Kekas, and bond with what remains of the old majority — that being the lone remaining Republican, District E Councilor Philip Isley. Why wouldn’t Baldwin choose instead to be part of the new, 7-1 majority?
A 7-1 majority, you ask, in favor of what? Well, Perry Woods, the political consultant who helped Russ Stephenson win re-election in the at-large Council race, called it “the best night for neighborhoods in Raleigh since Isabella Cannon.” Woods is also Mayor Meeker’s consultant, when Meeker has an opponent — tonight, of course, he didn’t. So if Woods is right, it’s a 7-1 majority in favor of Meeker, neighborhoods (in the old battle of neighborhood interests versus development interests) and smart-growth urban policies — that is, as long as Koopman wins the District B runoff (or Taliaferro concedes without calling for a runoff, which is her prerogative). And it displaces the old 5-3 majority in favor of letting developers do pretty much what they want to do — aka, “market rule.”
What if Taliaferro does call for a runoff and then somehow wins? Still, McFarlane’s election shifts the center of gravity on the Council, and West is likely to shift with it and possibly Baldwin too. Which will give Meeker a working majority (himself, Stephenson, District D’s Thomas Crowder, McFarlane, West and maybe Baldwin) for the first time since he became mayor in 2001. No wonder the mayor was smiling tonight.